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Demographic Variability, Vaccination, and the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Rotavirus Epidemics
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Demographic Variability, Vaccination, and the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Rotavirus Epidemics
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Journal Article
Demographic Variability, Vaccination, and the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Rotavirus Epidemics
2009
Overview
Historically, annual rotavirus activity in the United States has started in the southwest in late fall and ended in the northeast 3 months later; this trend has diminished in recent years. Traveling waves of infection or local environmental drivers cannot account for these patterns. A transmission model calibrated against epidemiological data shows that spatiotemporal variation in birth rate can explain the timing of rotavirus epidemics. The recent large-scale introduction of rotavirus vaccination provides a natural experiment to further test the impact of susceptible recruitment on disease dynamics. The model predicts a pattern of reduced and lagged epidemics postvaccination, closely matching the observed dynamics. Armed with this validated model, we explore the relative importance of direct and indirect protection, a key issue in determining the worldwide benefits of vaccination.
Publisher
American Association for the Advancement of Science,The American Association for the Advancement of Science
Subject
/ Biological and medical sciences
/ Child
/ Diarrhea
/ Diarrhea - prevention & control
/ Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
/ Humans
/ Infant
/ Modeling
/ Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine
/ Rotavirus Infections - epidemiology
/ Rotavirus Infections - immunology
/ Rotavirus Infections - prevention & control
/ Rotavirus Infections - transmission
/ Rotavirus Vaccines - administration & dosage
/ Seasons
/ Specific populations (family, woman, child, elderly...)
/ United States - epidemiology
/ Vaccines
/ Vaccines, antisera, therapeutical immunoglobulins and monoclonal antibodies
/ Vaccines, Attenuated - administration & dosage
/ Virology
/ Viruses
