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Climate change drives expansion of Antarctic ice-free habitat
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Climate change drives expansion of Antarctic ice-free habitat
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Journal Article
Climate change drives expansion of Antarctic ice-free habitat
2017
Overview
Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity occurs almost exclusively in ice-free areas that cover less than 1% of the continent. Climate change will alter the extent and configuration of ice-free areas, yet the distribution and severity of these effects remain unclear. Here we quantify the impact of twenty-first century climate change on ice-free areas under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate forcing scenarios using temperature-index melt modelling. Under the strongest forcing scenario, ice-free areas could expand by over 17,000 km
2
by the end of the century, close to a 25% increase. Most of this expansion will occur in the Antarctic Peninsula, where a threefold increase in ice-free area could drastically change the availability and connectivity of biodiversity habitat. Isolated ice-free areas will coalesce, and while the effects on biodiversity are uncertain, we hypothesize that they could eventually lead to increasing regional-scale biotic homogenization, the extinction of less-competitive species and the spread of invasive species.
Permanently ice-free areas, home to almost all of Antarctica’s biodiversity, are projected, in the worst case, to expand by over 17,000 km
2
as a result of climate change by the end of this century, with potentially deleterious consequences for the continent’s biodiversity.
Ice loss threatens biodiversity hotspots
Permanently ice-free areas are home to almost all of Antarctica's biodiversity. Jasmine Lee and colleagues model the potential effect of climate change on the extent of ice-free areas in Antarctica over the coming century, under moderate and severe forcing scenarios. Ice-free areas are projected to expand by over 17,000 km
2
under the strongest forcing scenario. The greatest change can be expected in the Antarctic Peninsula, where a threefold increase in ice-free area is projected. The authors suggest that the expansion and eventual merging of ice-free areas could have harmful consequences for the biodiversity of the continent by facilitating the homogenization of biodiversity across regions.
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group UK,Nature Publishing Group
Subject
/ Animals
/ Climate
/ Climate Change - statistics & numerical data
/ Conservation of Natural Resources - methods
/ Conservation of Natural Resources - statistics & numerical data
/ Conservation of Natural Resources - trends
/ Endangered & extinct species
/ Habitats
/ Humanities and Social Sciences
/ Ice
/ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
/ Science
