Journal Article

Temperature, Crime, and Violence: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Choi, Hayon Michelle, Son, Jiyoung, Song, Yimeng, Bell, Michelle L., Stewart, Rory, Foo, Damien, Heo, Seulkee

2024

Overview

Heat is known to affect many health outcomes, but more evidence is needed on the impact of rising temperatures on crime and/or violence. We conducted a systematic review with meta-analysis regarding the influence of hot temperatures on crime and/or violence. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we evaluated the relationship between increase in temperature and crime and/or violence for studies across the world and generated overall estimates. We searched MEDLINE and Web of Science for articles from the available database start year (1946 and 1891, respectively) to 6 November 2023 and manually reviewed reference lists of identified articles. Two investigators independently reviewed the abstracts and full-text articles to identify and summarize studies that analyzed the relationship between increasing temperature and crime, violence, or both and met eligibility criteria. PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines were used to extract information from included articles. Some study results were combined using a profile likelihood random-effects model for meta-analysis for a subset of outcomes: violent crime (assault, homicide), property crime (theft, burglary), and sexual crime (sexual assault, rape). This review is registered at PROSPERO, CRD42023417295. We screened 16,634 studies with 83 meeting the inclusion criteria. Higher temperatures were significantly associated with crime, violence, or both. A 10°C (18°F) increase in short-term mean temperature exposure was associated with a 9% [95% confidence interval (CI): 7%, 12%] increase in the risk of violent crime ( ; eight studies). Studies had differing definitions of crime and/or violence, exposure assessment methods, and confounder assessments. Our findings summarize the evidence supporting the association between elevated temperatures, crime, and violence, particularly for violent crimes. Associations for some categories of crime and/or violence, such as property crimes, were inconsistent. Future research should employ larger spatial/temporal scales, consistent crime and violence definitions, advanced modeling strategies, and different populations and locations. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP14300.

• Publisher: National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences,Environmental Health Perspectives
• Subject: Aggression / Bias / Burglary / Climate change / Clinical trials / Confidence intervals / Conflicts of interest / Crime / Crime - statistics & numerical data / Criminology / Criteria / Domestic violence / Environment / Environmental aspects / Evidence / Heat / High temperature / Homicide / Hot Temperature - adverse effects / Humans / Information processing / Meta-analysis / Murders & murder attempts / Property crime / Public health / Review / Risk factors / Robbery / Sex crimes / Sexual assault / Statistical analysis / Systematic review / Temperature / Theft / United States / Violence / Violence - statistics & numerical data / Violent crime