Journal Article

Integrating Temperature-Dependent Life Table Data into a Matrix Projection Model for Drosophila suzukii Population Estimation

Walton, Vaughn M., Ioriatti, Claudio, Grassi, Alberto, Dalton, Daniel T., Daane, Kent M., Miller, Betsey, Chiu, Joanna C., Wang, Xingeng, Wiman, Nik G., Anfora, Gianfranco, Tochen, Samantha, Burrack, Hannah J.

2014

Overview

Temperature-dependent fecundity and survival data was integrated into a matrix population model to describe relative Drosophila suzukii Matsumura (Diptera: Drosophilidae) population increase and age structure based on environmental conditions. This novel modification of the classic Leslie matrix population model is presented as a way to examine how insect populations interact with the environment, and has application as a predictor of population density. For D. suzukii, we examined model implications for pest pressure on crops. As case studies, we examined model predictions in three small fruit production regions in the United States (US) and one in Italy. These production regions have distinctly different climates. In general, patterns of adult D. suzukii trap activity broadly mimicked seasonal population levels predicted by the model using only temperature data. Age structure of estimated populations suggest that trap and fruit infestation data are of limited value and are insufficient for model validation. Thus, we suggest alternative experiments for validation. The model is advantageous in that it provides stage-specific population estimation, which can potentially guide management strategies and provide unique opportunities to simulate stage-specific management effects such as insecticide applications or the effect of biological control on a specific life-stage. The two factors that drive initiation of the model are suitable temperatures (biofix) and availability of a suitable host medium (fruit). Although there are many factors affecting population dynamics of D. suzukii in the field, temperature-dependent survival and reproduction are believed to be the main drivers for D. suzukii populations.

• Publisher: Public Library of Science,Public Library of Science (PLoS)
• Subject: Age composition / Animals / Biological control / Biological effects / Biological pest control / Biology and Life Sciences / Case studies / Climate / Computer simulation / Crop production / Crops, Agricultural / Data processing / Developmental stages / Drosophila / Drosophila - growth & development / Drosophila - physiology / Drosophila suzukii / Drosophilidae / Ecology and Environmental Sciences / Environmental conditions / Environmental science / Fecundity / Female / Fertility / Forecasting / Fruit / Fruit flies / Fruits / Fundulus heteroclitus / Gene expression / Heat / Heat shock proteins / Horticulture / Infestation / Insect Control - methods / Insecticides / Insects / Italy / Life Tables / Management science / Mathematical models / Models, Biological / Natural resources / Population / Population biology / Population density / Population Dynamics / Population Forecast / Population levels / Predictions / Projection model / Survival / Technology transfer / Temperature / Temperature data / Temperature dependence / Temperature effects / United States