Journal Article

Impact of Colic Pain as a Significant Factor for Predicting the Stone Free Rate of One-Session Shock Wave Lithotripsy for Treating Ureter Stones: A Bayesian Logistic Regression Model Analysis

Lee, Joo Yong, Chung, Doo Yong, Ham, Won Sik, Jung, Hae Do, Kown, Jong Kyou, Kang, Dong Hyuk, Cho, Kang Su, Choi, Young Deuk, Han, Jang Hee, Lee, Dae Hun

2015

Overview

This study was conducted to evaluate colic pain as a prognostic pretreatment factor that can influence ureter stone clearance and to estimate the probability of stone-free status in shock wave lithotripsy (SWL) patients with a ureter stone. We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 1,418 patients who underwent their first SWL between 2005 and 2013. Among these patients, 551 had a ureter stone measuring 4-20 mm and were thus eligible for our analyses. The colic pain as the chief complaint was defined as either subjective flank pain during history taking and physical examination. Propensity-scores for established for colic pain was calculated for each patient using multivariate logistic regression based upon the following covariates: age, maximal stone length (MSL), and mean stone density (MSD). Each factor was evaluated as predictor for stone-free status by Bayesian and non-Bayesian logistic regression model. After propensity-score matching, 217 patients were extracted in each group from the total patient cohort. There were no statistical differences in variables used in propensity- score matching. One-session success and stone-free rate were also higher in the painful group (73.7% and 71.0%, respectively) than in the painless group (63.6% and 60.4%, respectively). In multivariate non-Bayesian and Bayesian logistic regression models, a painful stone, shorter MSL, and lower MSD were significant factors for one-session stone-free status in patients who underwent SWL. Colic pain in patients with ureter calculi was one of the significant predicting factors including MSL and MSD for one-session stone-free status of SWL.

• Publisher: Public Library of Science,Public Library of Science (PLoS)
• Subject: Analysis / Bayes Theorem / Bayesian analysis / Calcification / Calcification (ectopic) / Chi-square test / Cohort Studies / Colic / Colic - complications / Edema / Female / Hospitals / Humans / Lithotripsy / Logistic Models / Male / Mathematical models / Medical records / Medicine / Middle Aged / Model matching / Multivariate analysis / Pain / Pain - complications / Patients / Physicians / Pretreatment / Prognosis / Propensity Score / Regression analysis / Regression models / Retrospective Studies / ROC Curve / Science / Shock waves / Statistical analysis / Stone / Success / Tomography / Ureter / Ureteral Calculi - complications / Ureteral Calculi - diagnosis / Ureteral Calculi - therapy / Urology