Journal Article

Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C

Rogelj, Joeri, Schaeffer, Roberto, Winkler, Harald, Riahi, Keywan, Meinshausen, Malte, Höhne, Niklas, Sha, Fu, den Elzen, Michel, Fransen, Taryn, Fekete, Hanna

2016

Overview

The Paris climate agreement aims at holding global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to “pursue efforts” to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To accomplish this, countries have submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate action. Here we assess the effect of current INDCs on reducing aggregate greenhouse gas emissions, its implications for achieving the temperature objective of the Paris climate agreement, and potential options for overachievement. The INDCs collectively lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to where current policies stand, but still imply a median warming of 2.6–3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100. More can be achieved, because the agreement stipulates that targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are strengthened over time, both in ambition and scope. Substantial enhancement or over-delivery on current INDCs by additional national, sub-national and non-state actions is required to maintain a reasonable chance of meeting the target of keeping warming well below 2 degrees Celsius. The objective of the Paris climate agreement is to limit global-average temperature increase to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to further pursue limiting it to 1.5 degrees Celsius; here, the adequacy of the national plans submitted in preparation for this agreement is assessed, and it is concluded that substantial enhancement or over-delivery on these plans is required to have a reasonable chance of achieving the Paris climate objective. Paris climate action plans assessed The principal climate goal of the Paris Agreement of December 2015 is to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. This Perspective assesses the national plans submitted to the Paris meeting for post-2020 action to reduce global greenhouse gas emission by 2030. It also provides projections for global mean temperature increase over the twenty-first century that would be consistent with the present national plans and discusses options that may help to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to levels that are more consistent with maintaining a reasonable chance of meeting the well below 2 degrees Celsius climate target.

• Publisher: Nature Publishing Group UK,Nature Publishing Group
• Subject: 704/106/694/1108 / 704/106/694/682 / Air quality management / Carbon dioxide / Carbon Dioxide - analysis / Climate action / Climate change / Confounding Factors (Epidemiology) / Economic aspects / Emissions / Emissions control / Environmental policy / Environmental Policy - legislation & jurisprudence / Environmental Policy - trends / Environmental Systems Analysis / Environmental Systems Analysis Group / Global warming / Global Warming - legislation & jurisprudence / Global Warming - prevention & control / Goals / Greenhouse effect / Greenhouse Effect - legislation & jurisprudence / Greenhouse Effect - prevention & control / Greenhouse gases / Humanities and Social Sciences / International agreements / International Cooperation - legislation & jurisprudence / Laws, regulations and rules / Leerstoelgroep Milieusysteemanalyse / Methods / Milieusysteemanalyse / multidisciplinary / Paris / Paris Agreement / perspective / Prevention / Science / Sustainable development / Temperature / Time Factors / Uncertainty / WIMEK