Journal Article

Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries

Pelletier, François, Gerland, Patrick, Heilig, Gerhard K., Alkema, Leontine, Buettner, Thomas, Clark, Samuel J., Raftery, Adrian E.

2011

Overview

We describe a Bayesian projection model to produce country-specific projections of the total fertility rate (TFR) for all countries. The model decomposes the evolution of TFR into three phases: pre-transition high fertility, the fertility transition, and post-transition low fertility. The model for the fertility decline builds on the United Nations Population Division's current deterministic projection methodology, which assumes that fertility will eventually fall below replacement level. It models the decline in TFR as the sum of two logistic functions that depend on the current TFR level, and a random term. A Bayesian hierarchical model is used to project future TFR based on both the country's TFR history and the pattern of all countries. It is estimated from United Nations estimates of past TFR in all countries using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The post-transition low fertility phase is modeled using an autoregressive model, in which long-term TFR projections converge toward and oscillate around replacement level. The method is evaluated using out-of-sample projections for the period since 1980 and the period since 1995, and is found to be well calibrated.

• Publisher: Springer,Springer US,Duke University Press, NC & IL
• Subject: Age / Algorithms / Bayes Theorem / Bayesian analysis / Bayesian method / Below replacement level / Birth Rate - trends / Censuses / Countries / Cross-Cultural Comparison / Demographic change / Demographics / Demography / Developed Countries - statistics & numerical data / Developing Countries - statistics & numerical data / Estimation / Fertility / Fertility Decline / Fertility rate / Fertility rates / Forecasting - methods / Forecasting models / Forecasts / Geography / Humans / International / International cooperation / Markov analysis / Markov Chains / Medicine/Public Health / Methodology / Methods / Monte Carlo Method / Monte Carlo simulation / Mortality / Musical intervals / Parametric models / Population / Population Dynamics / Population Economics / Probability / Projections / Public health / Regression analysis / Replacement level / Social Sciences / Socioeconomics / Sociology / Studies / THE TOTAL FERTILITY RATE / Total fertility rate / Trends / United Nations / United Nations - statistics & numerical data