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The prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum in sub-Saharan Africa since 1900
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Journal Article
The prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum in sub-Saharan Africa since 1900
2017
Overview
Spatial and temporal modelling of a large dataset of
Plasmodium falciparum
prevalence rates reveals cycles and trends of malaria transmission in sub-Saharan Africa over a 115 year period.
Meta-analysis of malaria
In this landmark study, Robert Snow and colleagues have collated the largest ever dataset of
Plasmodium falciparum
prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa, covering 7.8 million individuals at more than 30,000 locations over a period of 115 years. Through the analysis of this unique dataset, the authors describe the patterns of malaria prevalence since 1900, identifying periods of rapidly increasing and decreasing transmission, which is probably the result of several different contributing factors. Importantly, although recent interventions have contributed to an unprecedented decline since the year 2000, reductions have not occurred uniformly throughout the continent.
Malaria transmission is influenced by climate, land use and deliberate interventions. Recent declines have been observed in malaria transmission. Here we show that the African continent has witnessed a long-term decline in the prevalence of
Plasmodium falciparum
from 40% prevalence in the period 1900–1929 to 24% prevalence in the period 2010–2015, a trend that has been interrupted by periods of rapidly increasing or decreasing transmission. The cycles and trend over the past 115 years are inconsistent with explanations in terms of climate or deliberate intervention alone. Previous global initiatives have had minor impacts on malaria transmission, and a historically unprecedented decline has been observed since 2000. However, there has been little change in the high transmission belt that covers large parts of West and Central Africa. Previous efforts to model the changing patterns of
P. falciparum
transmission intensity in Africa have been limited to the past 15 years
1
,
2
or have used maps drawn from historical expert opinions
3
. We provide quantitative data, from 50,424 surveys at 36,966 geocoded locations, that covers 115 years of malaria history in sub-Saharan Africa; inferring from these data to future trends, we would expect continued reductions in malaria transmission, punctuated with resurgences.
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group UK,Nature Publishing Group
Subject
/ 692/699
/ Africa South of the Sahara - epidemiology
/ Female
/ Humanities and Social Sciences
/ Humans
/ Land use
/ letter
/ Malaria
/ Malaria, Falciparum - epidemiology
/ Malaria, Falciparum - parasitology
/ Malaria, Falciparum - prevention & control
/ Malaria, Falciparum - transmission
/ Plasmodium falciparum - isolation & purification
/ Prevalence studies (Epidemiology)
/ Science
