Journal Article

Modelling conservation in the Amazon basin

Curran, L.M, Ramos, C.A, Lefebvre, P, Garcia, R.A, McDonald, A, Nepstad, D.C, Soares-Filho, B.S, Voll, E, Cerqueira, G.C, Schlesinger, P

2006

Overview

Expansion of the cattle and soy industries in the Amazon basin has increased deforestation rates and will soon push all-weather highways into the region's core. In the face of this growing pressure, a comprehensive conservation strategy for the Amazon basin should protect its watersheds, the full range of species and ecosystem diversity, and the stability of regional climates. Here we report that protected areas in the Amazon basin-the central feature of prevailing conservation approaches-are an important but insufficient component of this strategy, based on policy-sensitive simulations of future deforestation. By 2050, current trends in agricultural expansion will eliminate a total of 40% of Amazon forests, including at least two-thirds of the forest cover of six major watersheds and 12 ecoregions, releasing 32 ± 8 Pg of carbon to the atmosphere. One-quarter of the 382 mammalian species examined will lose more than 40% of the forest within their Amazon ranges. Although an expanded and enforced network of protected areas could avoid as much as one-third of this projected forest loss, conservation on private lands is also essential. Expanding market pressures for sound land management and prevention of forest clearing on lands unsuitable for agriculture are critical ingredients of a strategy for comprehensive conservation.

• Publisher: Nature Publishing Group UK,Nature Publishing,Nature Publishing Group
• Subject: Agricultural expansion / Agriculture / Amazonia / Animal, plant and microbial ecology / Animals / Applied ecology / Atmosphere / Basins / Biodiversity / biogeochemical cycles / Biological and medical sciences / Bolivia / Brazil / carbon / Cattle / Colombia / Conservation / Conservation of Natural Resources / Conservation, protection and management of environment and wildlife / Deforestation / Ecosystem / environmental impact / forested watersheds / Forests / Freshwater / Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology / General aspects / General aspects. Techniques / Geographic profiles / Glycine max / Highways / Humanities and Social Sciences / Humans / Land management / land use change / letter / Mammals / Methods and techniques (sampling, tagging, trapping, modelling...) / Models, Biological / multidisciplinary / natural resource management / Peru / Prevention / Private lands / Protected areas / Rivers / Science / Science (multidisciplinary) / simulation models / Socioeconomic Factors / Species diversity / Trees / tropical rain forests / Watersheds / wildlife