Journal Article

Climate Models as Economic Guides Scientific Challenge or Quixotic Quest?

BECKER, WILLIAM, STANO, PAWEL, SALTELLI, ANDREA, STARK, PHILIP B.

2015

Overview

In the polarized climate change debate, cost-benefit analyses of policy options are taking on an increasingly influential role. These analyses have been presented by authoritative scholars as a useful contribution to the debate. But models of climate -- and especially models of the impact of climate policy -- are theorists' tools, not policy justification tools. Climate change is the quintessential \"wicked problem:\" a knot in the uncomfortable area where uncertainty and disagreement about values affect the very framing of what the problem is. The issue of climate change has become so resonant and fraught that it speaks directly to their individual political and cultural identities. Given their uncertainties, the value of climate models to the policy debate depends on the important difference between policy simulation (performed by scholars to gain insight in their discipline) and policy justification (where the same scholars or other parties produce evidence to support adopting a specific policy).

• Publisher: The University of Texas at Dallas,Arizona State University,National Academy of Sciences,Issues in Science and Technology
• Subject: Analysis / Analytical forecasting / Approximation / Arrow, Kenneth Joseph / Climate / Climate change / Climate change policy / Climate models / Climate policy / Climatic changes / Climatology / Computer simulation / Computers / Cost benefit analysis / Cultural identity / Debates / Economic aspects / Economic conditions / Economic models / Economic uncertainty / Economics / Emissions / Environmental impact analysis / Environmental policy / Evidence / Framing / Gain / Genetic engineering / Global warming / Greenhouse effect / Intellectuals / Justification / Labor Supply / Mathematical Models / Methods / Modeling / Parametric models / Policies / Recessions / Scientists / Self concept / Simulation / Studies / Theorists / Uncertainty / Values / Weather forecasting / Western Civilization