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Journal Article
Rebalancing Global Trade: No Quick Fix
2013
Overview
That global trade imbalances matter has been made abundantly clear by the ongoing global economic malaise. The likely path to more sustainable levels of trade deficits, however, remains far less clear. Consider the potential global impact of populist cries for protectionist trade policies ostensibly aimed at easing the difficult transition to more sustainable trade and debt balances. In the event of a trade war, people would all lose. Perhaps even more disquieting, however, is how these consequences would most likely play out across nations. The evidence presented in this commentary suggests that countries like China, which depend heavily on total trade in relation to their overall economy, would suffer most severely. This evidence further suggests that instead of pursuing short-term quick fixes that would exacerbate the malaise, global leaders must work together to establish a long-term path to more sustainable trade and debt balances.
