Asset Details
Do you wish to reserve the book?
Mean daily temperatures predict the thermal limits of malaria transmission better than hourly rate summation
Hey, we have placed the reservation for you!
By the way, why not check out events that you can attend while you pick your title.
Oops! Something went wrong.
Looks like we were not able to place the reservation. Kindly try again later.
Are you sure you want to remove the book from the shelf?
Mean daily temperatures predict the thermal limits of malaria transmission better than hourly rate summation
Do you wish to request the book?
Mean daily temperatures predict the thermal limits of malaria transmission better than hourly rate summation
Please be aware that the book you have requested cannot be checked out. If you would like to checkout this book, you can reserve another copy
We have requested the book for you!
Your request is successful and it will be processed during the Library working hours. Please check the status of your request in My Requests.
Oops! Something went wrong.
Looks like we were not able to place your request. Kindly try again later.
Journal Article
Mean daily temperatures predict the thermal limits of malaria transmission better than hourly rate summation
2025
Overview
Temperature shapes the geographic distribution, seasonality, and magnitude of mosquito-borne disease outbreaks. Models predicting transmission often use mosquito and pathogen thermal responses measured at constant temperatures. However, mosquitoes live in fluctuating temperatures. Rate summation––non-linear averaging of trait values measured at constant temperatures—is commonly used to infer performance in fluctuating environments, but its accuracy is rarely validated. We measured three traits that impact transmission—bite rate, survival, fecundity—in a malaria mosquito (
Anopheles stephensi
) across three diurnal temperature ranges (0, 9, and 12 °C). We compared transmission thermal suitability models with temperature-trait relationships observed under constant temperatures, fluctuating temperatures, and those predicted by rate summation. We mapped results across
An. stephenesi
’s native Asian and invasive African ranges. We found: 1) daily temperature fluctuation trait values substantially differ from both constant temperature experiments and rate summation; 2) rate summation partially captured decreases in performance near thermal optima, yet incorrectly predicted increases near thermal limits; and 3) while thermal suitability across constant temperatures did not perfectly capture fluctuating environments, it was better than rate summation for estimating and mapping thermal limits. Our study provides insight into methods for predicting mosquito-borne disease risk and emphasizes the need to improve understanding of organismal performance under fluctuating conditions.
Malaria transmission is sensitive to temperature and models of malaria typically account for daily fluctuations in temperature through a ‘rate summation’ approach. Here, the authors conduct experimental and modeling work to investigate the accuracy of rate summation in predicting thermal suitability of malaria transmission by
Anopheles stephensi
.
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group UK,Nature Publishing Group,Nature Portfolio
Subject
